There are two possible points in time when Israel will strike Iran, one being the autumn, the other being the spring. But as all analysts of the region must realise, war against Iran means war against Hamas and Lebanon, the core meaning of Lebanon being Hezbollah. But we must be clear that the Lebanese state is now actively collarborating and controlled by Hezbollah, Syria and Iran: Lebanon is now an enemy state and must be treated as such.
Following the strike against Iran, Israel must seal the Gaza Strip and the West Bank tight and mobilize for all out war against Lebanon. And this time, Israel must not withdraw afterwards.
The Lebanese government is now only nominal in nature, the real power in the Lebanon is Hezbollah and Israel must destroy the power of Hezbollah. It came surprisingly close to doing so in the 2006 war, despite the bungling of the IDF General Staff, Israel’s politicians and the stupidity of Condelezza Rice. The war plan must involve at least three main thrusts by as many soldiers as Israel can field; of particular importance is to seal the Lebanese – Syrian border and to provoke Hezbollah to fight in the field, where it’s valuable trained personnel can be destoyed.
That is the war phase. Once Lebanon has fallen to Israel, then comes the occupation phase. The plan for the occupation must be to a: the total destruction of Hezbollah as a military and political force, b: the breakup of Lebanon into ethnic states, the Christian and Druze parts of which can be armed and established by Israel (and hopefully the United States), while the Shia part is also established as a demilitarised state. It maybe that strategically important parts of Lebanon will have to be annexed to guarentee Israeli security, which may be legal given that Lebanon does not recognise Israel.
The greatest problem after eliminating Hezbollah will be the “refugee” Palestinian Arab problem. The best solution would be to expel them into Syria, or perhaps Iran! If this is not feasible, then Israel must undertake the administration and settlement of the Lebanese Palestinian Arabs. If they are given farms and the material to make a living, perhaps they could be pacified? At present, they cannot legally work and have no legal presence within the Lebanese state.
This scenario is inevitable given, as above, the collaboration and control of Lebanon’s army and state by Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, given the seizures of Mt. Sannine and Mt. Barukh and the installation of anti-aircraft and radar systems there – which under international law have no right to be there, Hezbollah not being recognised as a state, instead acting as an “interest group” within Lebanon, one which freely flouts the laws of that state. The rearmament of Hezbollah has been openly allowed to happen by the Lebanese state and the UN force stationed in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon can no longer be considered a sovereign state as it has not been in control of its borders since the 1970s (when Arafat et al arrived), has been host to terrorist organisations that it has been unable or unwilling to remove and which undermine the state, and it now controlled by foreign powers and domestic terrorist groups.